How does the coronavirus change the traveling
In the brisk morning, I was heading home from my university's Department of Humanity after trying to take advantage of my Spanish language needs. On the way, I ran into a roommate. He said he had heard that a small plane had crashed into the World Trade Center.
By the time I got home and turned on the TV, both towers had caught fire and it was clear that it was more than just a small plane.
In the days and weeks after 9/11, the world changed. Even I can feel my young self in my bones that something like this will never happen again. There was a world before 9/11 and we were in the post-9/9 world forever.
While the post-2008 economic crisis changed the economy and our views on money, 9/11 seemed to be who we were original as people. It created a change in our thinking and our sense of self. That changed how Americans viewed the world. Was a "lost innocence".
As the Coronavirus has been spreading rapidly over the past month, I feel again and again except globally. Previously, there was a coronavirus world, and now we will live in a coronavirus world forever.
How we work, travel, look at government, money, and live our daily lives will all be different. And the longer the crisis goes on, the difference it will be. I can't say I'm still (I'm a bad future expert) but, in my words, I know that change is coming.
But let's talk about what I know a little about the travel industry.
How will this journey change?
The travel industry relies on human motivation to work. And, with the nationwide lockdown and most major airlines being shut down, no one is moving forward.
Overnight, an industry that employs 10% of the entire world has stopped.
This is worse than the recession. Because, even in a recession, some people are still traveling.
No longer moving. The industry is stagnant.
And nobody knows how long it lasts.
The outbreak of the epidemic in China, Hubei Province, was in lockdown for two months. Singapore has increased sanctions imposed on foreigners and Hong Kong, who are being affected by recent illness infections.
And I think the slow pace of such measures in many countries means that most parts of the world will fall into lockdown by May if not early June. Many people are behind the curve, and most people think it will take longer to control the virus.
So what does this industry mean that I have only done in the last twelve years?
Overall, I think we are looking at a small travel industry for the foreseeable future. WTTC says it expects 75 million jobs (up to 1 million jobs a day).
And it will take years - and industry - for the industry to return to its pre-Corona virus level.
For starters, I don't think a lot of magazines and online posts will be produced by this. The financial crisis of 2008 closed the doors of many publications, and nowadays people are stopping advertising, brand deals and events. Due to the traffic plummet, ad rates are decreasing and most brand deals are falling.
In the event that posts keep blowing up employees, cutting salaries, and never returning lost revenue, if it continues to run, I think you'll see about 25% of postings come to fruition. I know four that closed last week. More to come. And those who survive will be small and will be able to hire some authors.
In addition, many creators, YouTube, freelance writers, and bloggers rely on brand partnerships for revenue. The freelance writing market is not a land of wealth and, given the vast majority of writers and online content creators on thin margins and salaries, months of zero income will likely expel people from the industry. I know some are already looking to get out. In my opinion, if the industry remains frozen by June, 30-40% of people will leave.
In addition, I understand that many hostels, travel startups, and small tour operators will also come in handy. Most small businesses run with small margins and do not have much liquidity. They only have enough money to earn for a few weeks with no income. Thus, their business is experiencing a setback, even with government support, they are about to go bankrupt. They cost a lot to maintain and cost them. Many people will pair up and, when you travel again, you will see fewer hostels, food and drink tour companies, and smaller tour operators.
I expect it will take years to restore the travel industry. People will slowly start booking travel again but, like the 2008 crisis, it will also leave many unemployed.
0 Comments